Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Dallas Wings travel to face the New York Liberty on 24 May 2026 at 3:30 PM Eastern Time in a regular-season WNBA matchup. Settlement occurs at 19:30 UTC the same day, immediately following the scheduled conclusion of play. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES reflects near-certainty that the game will proceed as scheduled, though the market's cancellation clause (50-50 split if no make-up game is arranged) remains operative.

Historical precedent suggests WNBA games rarely cancel without rescheduling; since 2020, postponements have typically resulted in fixture shifts rather than outright cancellations. The Liberty finished the 2025 season as a playoff contender, whilst the Wings have shown volatility in recent campaigns. A 100% probability typically indicates either strong confidence in fixture stability or minimal trading activity; comparable WNBA markets on Polymarket have settled at similar certainties when games approach within 48 hours of tip-off, absent injury announcements or venue issues.

Traders should monitor official WNBA and team communications for roster changes or weather-related delays. The Liberty's injury status, particularly among key rotation players, may shift market sentiment if disclosed before tip-off. Under German GlüStV regulations, this market qualifies as a sports-event contract and falls outside the €1,500 no-KYC threshold for individual wagers; traders in EU jurisdictions should verify local compliance. US CFTC oversight of prediction markets remains limited to binary event contracts, though Polymarket operates under established regulatory frameworks. The settlement window's precision (19:30 UTC) reflects standard practice for real-time sports outcomes, with no dependency on delayed official scoring.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.