UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Otari Tanzilovi and Shane Collins are set for a featherweight prelim on the UFC Fight Night card headlined by Kape vs Horiguchi, with the market resolving from the UFC’s official result only. UFCStats records Collins beating Tanzilovi by unanimous decision in a 3-round bout, which is the key practical reference point for reading a current **0% YES** price: if the fight has already been officially called for Collins, a Tanzilovi “YES” outcome is effectively ruled out unless the market has not yet incorporated that result.[6]

For traders, the main catalysts are the UFC’s bout status and the official winner announcement, not secondary commentary or social posts. Kalshi’s comparable market language shows how these fights can remain open through postponement or settle to a neutral outcome if the contest ends in a draw, no contest, cancellation, or major delay, so the accessibility of the event depends on whether it is treated as a live, settled, or deferred result under the venue’s rules.[1] In German-facing contexts, GlüStV concerns matter because locally regulated gambling rules can limit access to certain event-based markets, while US CFTC reach is relevant where a platform is operating under American derivatives-style oversight rather than sportsbook regulation. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to transact small amounts with reduced identity checks, but that does not remove venue, residency, or compliance restrictions, so practical access to this specific market can still vary by jurisdiction and account profile.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.