Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Major League Baseball game between the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians, played on Friday, 26 June 2026 at Progressive Field in Cleveland, which concluded with the Mariners winning 3–1. This result is already settled, meaning the market’s 100% YES probability for the Mariners reflects a known outcome rather than a forecast. Historical precedents in prediction markets show that when a game has finished and the result is publicly confirmed by official sources like ESPN or MLB, markets rapidly converge to certainty, eliminating speculative risk [1][2]. Comparable cases from previous MLB seasons demonstrate that once final scores are published, liquidity shifts entirely to the winning side, rendering the market a confirmation tool rather than a trading venue.

Traders should monitor any official announcements regarding game postponements or cancellations, though these are irrelevant here since the match has already occurred. The primary catalyst for market resolution is the publication of the official final statistics by MLB, which confirms the 3–1 scoreline and validates the Mariners’ victory [1]. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the result was finalised in the seventh inning with Emerson’s homer and Crawford’s single securing the win, leaving no ambiguity for settlement [1]. For this specific market, accessibility is enhanced by regulatory frameworks allowing “no-KYC up to $1,500”, meaning users can participate without identity verification under German GlüStV and US CFTC rules, provided they stay within the threshold. This structure ensures broad participation while maintaining compliance, making the market highly liquid even for settled outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.