New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees face the Cleveland Guardians on 10 June at 1:10 PM ET in a regular-season Major League Baseball contest. The market's 98% implied probability for a Yankees victory reflects their historical dominance in head-to-head matchups and their standing within the AL East division structure as of early June. Settlement occurs on 17 June at 17:10 UTC, allowing a week for final official statistics to be confirmed by MLB's authoritative records. Postponement triggers an extension of the market's open window; cancellation without a rescheduled make-up game or any tied result mandates a 50-50 split resolution.

Historical context shows the Yankees have won approximately 56% of all-time meetings against Cleveland, though the Guardians' recent competitive improvements—particularly their 2023 AL Central title—have narrowed the gap in recent seasons. The 98% probability suggests market participants are pricing in Yankees roster depth, home-field advantage, and pitching matchup expectations rather than treating this as a toss-up. Comparable markets for regular-season MLB games typically see probabilities in the 55–70% range for favourites; extreme confidence at 98% indicates either significant injury news favouring New York or consensus around starting pitcher performance differential.

Traders should monitor roster announcements through 9 June, particularly injury reports affecting either team's starting rotation or key position players. Weather conditions at the venue and any last-minute lineup changes announced on game day can shift expectations. The CFTC's regulatory reach over US-based prediction markets and German GlüStV compliance frameworks for EU traders both apply to this market's accessibility; traders in jurisdictions permitting prediction markets up to €1,500 without KYC verification should verify their local rules, as MLB sports markets may fall outside certain no-KYC thresholds depending on operator classification.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.