New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the New York Yankees will face the Cleveland Guardians in an MLB regular-season fixture at 6:40 PM Eastern Time. The settlement window closes on 16 June at 22:40 UTC, allowing a week for the game to be completed should weather or scheduling conflicts cause postponement. The current crowd-implied probability of 53% for a Yankees victory reflects modest favouritism, consistent with their historical head-to-head record and regular-season strength, though the Guardians have demonstrated competitive capability in recent seasons.

Historical matchups between these franchises show the Yankees have maintained a slight edge in win percentage over the past five seasons, yet Cleveland's pitching depth and defensive efficiency have narrowed the gap considerably. The 53% probability sits within the range typical for games between evenly matched division rivals when neither team enjoys pronounced injury advantages or momentum swings heading into June. Comparable games from the 2024–2025 seasons saw similar probabilities resolve across the full spectrum, indicating genuine competitive balance rather than a lopsided expectation.

Traders should monitor roster announcements in the days preceding the fixture, particularly injury status for key position players or starting pitchers on either side. Weather forecasts for the venue merit attention, as June thunderstorms in the Northeast can trigger postponements. Recent form, bullpen availability following back-to-back games, and any last-minute lineup adjustments announced within 24 hours of first pitch will influence late-market movement. The settlement mechanism specifies that postponed games remain open until completion; cancellation without a make-up fixture would trigger a 50-50 split resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.