Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Major League Baseball game between the Houston Astros and the Detroit Tigers, which took place on 25 June 2026 at 6:40 PM ET, where the Astros secured a 2–1 victory. This result confirms the market’s 100% YES probability for the Astros winning, as the game has already concluded with a definitive outcome rather than a tie or cancellation.

Historical precedents in MLB prediction markets show that when a game finishes before the settlement window closes, markets resolve immediately based on official final statistics, rendering probabilities of 100% factual rather than speculative. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons confirm that once a game ends with a clear winner, no further trading occurs, and the market locks in the result as final, aligning with the governing body’s recognised data.

Traders should monitor the official MLB final statistics page for any post-game corrections, though such adjustments are rare once the game is fully recorded. The primary dependency is the absence of a tie or cancellation, which the game avoided by finishing 2–1. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms Tatsuya Imai’s ten-strikeout performance and Taylor Trammell’s home run as the decisive factors, cementing the Astros’ win [1]. For accessibility, German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks permit “no-KYC up to $1,500” transactions, meaning this resolved market remains accessible to users without identity verification, provided their stake stays within the threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.