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Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props

Regulatory snapshot for "Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props": platform geo-block status, KYC thresholds, tax implications.

Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots 91% Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots 88% Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots 77% Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots 71% Volume: $140K Liquidity: $1.1M Closes: 29 Jun 2026
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Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
91% 9% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
91% 9% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots91%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots88%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots77%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots71%
Rayan: 1+ shots63%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots60%
Neymar Jr: 1+ shots56%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists54%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots54%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots54%
Endrick: 1+ shots54%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots52%
Casemiro: 1+ shots51%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots51%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots51%
Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists50%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists50%
Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists49%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target49%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists49%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target49%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target49%
Raphinha: 2+ shots on target49%
Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists49%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target49%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target49%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target49%
Casemiro: 2+ shots on target48%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target48%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target48%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target48%
Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target48%
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target48%
Rayan: 3+ shots on target48%
Alisson: 2+ saves48%
Alisson: 4+ saves48%
Alisson: 5+ saves48%
Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves48%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists48%
Endrick: 1+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 2+ shots on target48%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target48%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 3+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 4+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target48%
Raphinha: 3+ shots on target48%
Raphinha: 4+ shots on target48%
Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target48%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target48%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target47%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target47%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target47%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target47%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target47%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists47%
Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists47%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots47%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target47%
Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves47%
Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves47%
Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves47%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists47%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists47%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists47%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target47%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target47%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target47%
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists46%
Rayan: 4+ goals + assists46%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots46%
Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists46%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots45%
Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists45%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots44%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target42%
Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists41%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals39%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target39%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists38%
Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists37%
Danilo Santos: 1+ shots37%
Endrick: 2+ shots36%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists36%
Rayan: 1+ shots on target33%
Rayan: 2+ shots32%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots32%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots31%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists31%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists31%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots31%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots30%
Neymar Jr: 2+ shots30%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals30%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target29%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots28%
Alisson: 3+ saves28%
Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists27%
Rayan: 2+ goals + assists27%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots27%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots25%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists25%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots24%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists24%
Rayan: 3+ shots23%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists23%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots23%
Endrick: 3+ shots23%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots23%
Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots22%
Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists22%
Rayan: 1+ goals + assists21%
Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists21%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists21%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists21%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists21%
Danilo Santos: 2+ shots21%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target20%
Casemiro: 1+ shots on target20%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target20%
Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists20%
Rayan: 3+ goals + assists19%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals19%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots19%
Endrick: 4+ shots19%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots19%
Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots19%
Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots19%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots18%
Rayan: 1+ goals18%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists17%
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists17%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists16%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots16%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists16%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists16%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists16%
Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots15%
Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists15%
Rayan: 4+ shots14%
Casemiro: 2+ shots14%
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots14%
Endrick: 1+ goals14%
Rayan: 2+ shots on target14%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists14%
Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots14%
Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target14%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target13%
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots13%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots13%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals13%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals13%
Rayan: 3+ goals12%
Neymar Jr: 1+ assists12%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots12%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals12%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target11%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals11%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists11%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots11%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals10%
Rayan: 1+ assists10%
Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots10%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals10%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals10%
Igor Thiago: 3+ goals10%
Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists10%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists10%
Neymar Jr: 4+ shots10%
Rayan: 5+ shots9%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals9%
Neymar Jr: 2+ assists9%
Rayan: 2+ assists9%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals9%
Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots9%
Neymar Jr: 5+ shots9%
Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists9%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals9%
Endrick: 5+ shots9%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals9%
Casemiro: 1+ goals8%
Casemiro: 1+ assists8%
Igor Thiago: 5+ shots8%
Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots8%
Raphinha: 1+ shots on target7%
Danilo Santos: 1+ assists7%
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals6%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists6%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists6%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals6%
Neymar Jr: 2+ goals6%
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals6%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists5%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists5%
Endrick: 2+ goals5%
Danilo Santos: 2+ assists5%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists4%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals3%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals3%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists3%
Casemiro: 2+ assists3%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists3%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists3%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists3%
Rayan: 2+ goals3%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals2%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals2%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals2%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists2%
Endrick: 3+ goals2%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals2%
Raphinha: 3+ goals2%
Danilo Santos: 2+ goals2%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals1%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals1%
Casemiro: 2+ goals1%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals1%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals1%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals1%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals1%
Raphinha: 1+ goals1%
Raphinha: 2+ goals0%

Market context

Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 91%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.

Methodology

This overview of Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Tax UK?
Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
How are winnings taxed?
Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Tax UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
What happens during a tax audit?
You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
What if regulation changes?
If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Tax UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
and

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