Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots | 92% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 82% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Mo Touré: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Mo Touré: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ shots on target | 1% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Maty Ryan: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Maty Ryan: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Maty Ryan: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Maty Ryan: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mo Touré: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tete Yengi: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Trezeguet: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
Market context
Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Australia and Egypt, scheduled for July 3 at 2:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Tax UK has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Tax UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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