Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Butterfly (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Butterfly (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Butterfly (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Butterfly (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-6.5) vs Butterfly (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 2 match between 1WIN and Butterfly in the NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 6 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
This overview of Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Is Polymarket regulated by the UKGC?
- No. Polymarket is not licensed by the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC). It is a decentralised prediction market operated under US regulation. UK traders can use it but do not benefit from UKGC dispute resolution or player protection requirements.
- What are the HMRC tax rules on Polymarket profits for UK traders?
- Polymarket profits are treated as cryptocurrency disposal events by HMRC. Each USDC settlement is a taxable event subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT). For 2026/27, the CGT rate is 18% (basic rate) or 24% (higher rate). The annual CGT exemption is £3,000. Report via HMRC Self Assessment if your total crypto gains exceed £3,000 or proceeds exceed £50,000.
- Does Polymarket KYC apply to UK users?
- Yes. Polymarket requires KYC (Know Your Customer) verification for all users, including UK residents. You must provide a government-issued photo ID and a selfie. The process typically takes 5–10 minutes via their ID verification provider.
- What is the legal difference between Polymarket and Betfair Exchange for UK traders?
- Betfair Exchange is UKGC-licensed, meaning UK consumer protections apply and winnings are typically tax-free. Polymarket is not UKGC-licensed — it operates under decentralised blockchain rules. Profits from Polymarket are subject to HMRC CGT as crypto disposals. Choose based on your regulatory preference and tax situation.
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