Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 98% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 2% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
1. FC Köln meet Real Sociedad in a club friendly, and the exact-score market is only as useful as the match context: friendlies are often used for rotation, fitness loads and tactical experiments rather than full-strength competition. The historical head-to-head is limited, but UEFA records show two competitive meetings in the 1988/89 UEFA Cup, with Real Sociedad winning one and the other drawn, which is a reminder that this pairing has not generated a deep scoring dataset for pricing exact outcomes.[2]
A 0% crowd-implied price usually signals either an aggressively wide exact-score board or a market where the listed scorelines are being treated as very unlikely relative to “Any Other Score”. For a club friendly, that is plausible because substitutions, uneven second-half line-ups and low incentive to protect a result can push scores away from tidy football scores. Comparable stats sites also show both teams with modest-to-moderate scoring profiles in recent sample sets, but those figures are noisy for exact-score work and should be read as context, not a forecast.[3][9]
From a regulatory and access angle, German GlüStV rules are relevant if the market is being viewed or traded from Germany, because the Staatsvertrag regulates gambling-like products and can affect local availability and operator obligations. In the US, the CFTC’s reach matters because event-contract platforms can sit within a futures-style regulatory perimeter; whether a specific sports market is accessible can depend on where the user is located and how the venue is structured. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to access or trade up to that cumulative threshold without full identity checks, but it does not remove jurisdictional limits, sanctions screening or platform-specific compliance controls.
Methodology
This overview of 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Tax UK has a different geo footprint.
- Is Polymarket regulated by the UKGC?
- No. Polymarket is not licensed by the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC). It is a decentralised prediction market operated under US regulation. UK traders can use it but do not benefit from UKGC dispute resolution or player protection requirements.
- What are the HMRC tax rules on Polymarket profits for UK traders?
- Polymarket profits are treated as cryptocurrency disposal events by HMRC. Each USDC settlement is a taxable event subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT). For 2026/27, the CGT rate is 18% (basic rate) or 24% (higher rate). The annual CGT exemption is £3,000. Report via HMRC Self Assessment if your total crypto gains exceed £3,000 or proceeds exceed £50,000.
- Does Polymarket KYC apply to UK users?
- Yes. Polymarket requires KYC (Know Your Customer) verification for all users, including UK residents. You must provide a government-issued photo ID and a selfie. The process typically takes 5–10 minutes via their ID verification provider.
- What is the legal difference between Polymarket and Betfair Exchange for UK traders?
- Betfair Exchange is UKGC-licensed, meaning UK consumer protections apply and winnings are typically tax-free. Polymarket is not UKGC-licensed — it operates under decentralised blockchain rules. Profits from Polymarket are subject to HMRC CGT as crypto disposals. Choose based on your regulatory preference and tax situation.
Trade 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exac… on Polymarket Tax UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →