Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wimbledon atp: camilo ugo carabelli vs daniel merida aguilar. This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'C…
Methodology
This overview of Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Tax UK has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Tax UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Tax UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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