Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 36.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wimbledon atp: daniel merida aguilar vs daniil medvedev. This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Daniil Medvedev in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel …
Methodology
This overview of Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Tax UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Tax UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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