Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden and Tunisia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 10:00 PM ET. This market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation play plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty decisions. The current crowd probability of 0% reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting precise scorelines; exact-score markets typically show low probabilities across all listed outcomes because the number of possible results (draws, 1–0 victories, 2–1 results, and so forth) distributes probability thinly.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group-stage fixtures rarely see any single outcome exceed 15–20% implied probability before match day, even for heavily favoured teams. Sweden's recent form and Tunisia's defensive record will inform which scorelines traders consider plausible, but the 0% reading here likely reflects the market's early stage rather than genuine consensus that no specific score will occur. Comparable group-stage exact-score markets from 2022 showed meaningful probability shifts only in the final 48 hours as team lineups and injury news crystallised.

Traders should monitor official FIFA fixture confirmations, squad announcements (typically 10–14 days before play), and any late injury reports affecting key players on either side. The settlement window closes 14 June 2026 at 02:00 UTC, allowing roughly four hours post-match for final score confirmation. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks applicable to cross-border prediction markets, this market may be accessible without full KYC verification up to $1,500 USD equivalent per trader in certain jurisdictions, though regulatory status varies by user location and should be verified independently.

Methodology

We track Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.