Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 72% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 67% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 65% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 61% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 57% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots | 34% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 29% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 28% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ shots on target | 27% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 20% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 14% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 13% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 12% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 7% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 6% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 6% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 2% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 94% chance of portugal vs. spain - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Spain, scheduled for July 6 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Portugal vs. Spain - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Tax UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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