Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in a World Cup group-stage fixture on 13 June 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any result not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 0% crowd probability reflects the specificity required: predicting an exact scoreline is inherently difficult, and the listed outcomes likely cover only the most probable results (0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–1, etc.), leaving substantial probability mass in the "Any Other Score" category.

Exact-score markets in football have historically shown that even heavily favoured teams rarely command more than 15–20% implied probability on a single scoreline. Haiti's World Cup participation remains rare—their last appearance was 1974—whilst Scotland qualified for 2026 after missing the 2022 tournament. Historical precedent suggests matches between teams of differing competitive levels produce wider score distributions than derbies, making any single outcome less probable. The current 0% reading likely reflects either minimal trading activity or a technical listing issue rather than genuine market consensus.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both federations through May 2026, as key absences reshape expected goal output. Scotland's recent Nations League performance and Haiti's CONCACAF qualifying record will inform pre-match odds. Fixture scheduling changes remain possible; the settlement window extends to 14 June 2026 at 01:00 UTC to accommodate postponements. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, this market's accessibility depends on the platform's licensing jurisdiction—UK-regulated venues typically permit trading without KYC up to £1,500 notional exposure per trader, though exact-score markets may fall under stricter derivative classification in certain jurisdictions.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.