Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 86% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Yahia Fofana: 2+ saves | 75% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 74% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 60% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 57% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 51% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 51% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Egil Selvik: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jens Hauge: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Amad Diallo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Egil Selvik: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots | 41% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 5+ shots | 40% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots | 38% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 33% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots | 30% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots on target | 25% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 24% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 21% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Egil Selvik: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 90% YES probability for Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway, scheduled for June 30 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Tax UK has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Tax UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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