Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 74% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 64% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 38% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 32% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 27% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 26% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 22% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Raphinha: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Raphinha: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Raphinha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 95% YES probability for Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Tax UK has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Tax UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Tax UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
Trade Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props on Polymarket Tax UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →