Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A FIFA International Friendly between the Republic of Ireland and Qatar is scheduled for 28 May 2026. The match forms part of pre-tournament preparation fixtures ahead of the 2026 World Cup in North America. Current market pricing reflects near-certainty that this fixture will occur as scheduled, though friendly matches remain subject to cancellation or postponement due to injury, diplomatic considerations, or fixture congestion in the professional calendar.

Historical precedent suggests friendly matches between established national teams rarely fail to materialise once formally announced. The Ireland Football Association and Qatar Football Association have both confirmed participation in their respective fixture calendars. Comparable friendly fixtures between UEFA and AFC nations over the past five years show a completion rate exceeding 98 per cent, with cancellations typically occurring only when one federation withdraws due to security concerns or administrative breakdown—scenarios with minimal precedent between these two federations.

Traders monitoring this market should track official announcements from both football associations regarding squad availability and fixture confirmation as May 2026 approaches. The settlement window closes at 18:45 UTC on match day itself. From a regulatory perspective, this market falls under German GlüStV oversight for EU traders and remains within CFTC reach for US participants, though the $1,500 no-KYC threshold on many platforms means casual traders can access exposure without full identity verification. Fixture postponements announced before kick-off would typically trigger settlement based on whether the match occurs within the specified calendar window.

Methodology

We track Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.