Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Aurora and Vici Gaming are scheduled to play a best-of-three in DreamLeague Group A, but the market is currently priced at 0% for Aurora despite the published pre-match edge in the source data. For context, Aurora have entered with stronger recent form and a higher global ranking, while Vici came in after a 0-2 loss to Team Falcons, so a zero-implied chance looks more like an access or listing artefact than a normal sporting read-through. If you are looking at market accessibility rather than match probability, note that German GlüStV rules can affect whether an esports event is offered to German users, the US CFTC’s reach matters if a platform is serving or targeting US persons, and “no-KYC up to $1,500” typically means smaller withdrawals or positions may be usable without identity checks, but higher activity can still trigger verification and geo-restrictions.

The comparable cases to watch are other DreamLeague group-stage BO3s where a late schedule change, map protest, or roster issue can swing settlement even when one side is favoured. Here, the immediate catalysts are whether the series starts on time, whether the listed 13:30 UTC slot holds, and whether either team fields an unchanged roster, as group-stage Dota 2 markets can reprice quickly on stand-in announcements or bracket dependency updates. A recent event page from POLYMARKET and match listings from Sofascore and EGamersWorld all place the fixture on 16 May, which supports the idea that the main variable is not whether the match exists, but whether the market is fully open and correctly mapped to the right outcome before settlement at 19:30 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.