ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Scotland and Ireland will compete in a women's T20 World Cup group-stage fixture on 13 June 2026. The match will be played under ICC regulations, with the result determined by standard play, Super Over tiebreak if applicable, or any on-field ruling that awards victory to one side. Settlement relies on ESPN Cricinfo's published final result, treating all legitimate competition outcomes—including DLS adjustments, over-rate penalties, and walkovers—as ordinary match conclusions.

The 100% implied probability reflects the near-certainty that this fixture will occur as scheduled. Historical precedent shows women's T20 World Cup matches rarely face cancellation once the tournament begins; weather disruptions are managed through reserve days, and both teams have confirmed participation in ICC events. The only material risk to match completion would be force majeure at the venue or a team withdrawal, events with negligible historical frequency in established ICC tournaments. Comparable fixtures between associate nations (Scotland and Ireland both hold full ICC membership) have proceeded without incident in recent cycles.

Traders should monitor team squad announcements in May 2026, venue conditions in the Caribbean (the likely host region), and any late injury updates from either camp. The settlement window closes 20 June 2026, allowing five days post-match for ESPN Cricinfo to publish official results. From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls within the German GlüStV framework for sports prediction contracts and remains accessible to UK traders under the CFTC's limited reach on non-US-domiciled platforms. No-KYC access up to $1,500 USD applies to individual positions on this specific market, provided the trader's cumulative exposure across all markets on the platform remains below applicable thresholds.

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.