Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Platform comparison

Market context

The Beijing Ducks and Shanghai Sharks are due to meet in a CBA playoff semi-final game, with the market set by the final score including any overtime. The crowd-implied 0% YES looks very far from the recent series picture: the teams have already traded results in this matchup, with Shanghai winning 88-99 on 17 May and Beijing replying 66-81 on 20 May, leaving the series level. That kind of split is a reminder that a single-game market can move quickly on venue, rotation and late injury news rather than on season-long strength alone.

For accessibility and compliance context, a German participant faces the GlüStV issue if the platform is treated as a gambling product under German law, while US traders also sit within the wider reach of CFTC scrutiny where a market is viewed as a derivatives-like event contract rather than a simple pool. On the platform side, “no-KYC up to $1,500” usually means smaller accounts can trade and withdraw within that limit without full identity verification, but it does not remove any exchange-side checks, bank compliance or jurisdictional restrictions that may still apply to this specific market.

The main catalysts are straightforward: the game itself, any official tip-off delay, and whether the CBA or venue issues a postponement or cancellation notice before settlement. A recent live results page and match listings from Flashscore and Sofascore both show the fixture as scheduled for 22 May, which is the key operational dependency for resolution. If the game is played as scheduled, the market should settle on the on-court result; if it is postponed, it stays open until completion; if it is cancelled outright with no make-up, it resolves 50-50.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.