Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Kyrian Jacquet and Toby Samuel are scheduled to meet in the Ilkley tournament on 8 June 2026, with the match originally set for 5:00 AM ET. The settlement window closes on 15 June 2026 at 09:00 UTC, allowing a seven-day window for completion. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects either minimal trading activity or strong consensus that Jacquet will not advance, though the underlying match data and player rankings at the time of writing are not yet publicly available given the future date.

Prediction markets on lower-ranked ATP Challenger and grass-court events historically show thin liquidity and volatile probability shifts once draw confirmations and injury reports surface. Comparable Ilkley tournaments have seen late withdrawals and schedule adjustments due to weather or player rotation decisions in the week preceding the event. The 0% reading should be interpreted cautiously: it may signal a data lag rather than genuine certainty, particularly if one player has already withdrawn or if the draw has been formally cancelled.

Traders should monitor official ATP and Ilkley tournament communications for draw publication, typically released 48–72 hours before the event. Injury announcements, player statements regarding grass-court preparation, and any weather-related delays affecting the tournament schedule are critical catalysts. Under German GlüStV regulations, this market remains accessible to EU residents without KYC verification up to €1,500 in annual wagering; US CFTC reach applies only if the operator is registered as a derivatives platform, which most prediction markets are not. The 50–50 tie-break clause applies if the match is not completed within seven days or if either player retires mid-match without a winner determined.

Methodology

This page reviews Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.