Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| SpaceX | 92% |
| xAI | 26% |
| Anthropic | 7% |
| OpenAI | 1% |
| ByteDance | 0% |
| Stripe | 0% |
| Databricks | 0% |
| SHEIN | 0% |
| Waymo | 0% |
| Revolut | 0% |
| Discord | 0% |
| Perplexity AI | 0% |
| Kraken | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Placeholder A | 0% |
| Placeholder B | 0% |
| Placeholder C | 0% |
| Placeholder D | 0% |
| Placeholder E | 0% |
| Placeholder F | 0% |
| Placeholder G | 0% |
| Placeholder H | 0% |
| Placeholder I | 0% |
| Placeholder J | 0% |
| Placeholder K | 0% |
| Placeholder L | 0% |
| Placeholder M | 0% |
| Placeholder N | 0% |
| Placeholder O | 0% |
| Placeholder P | 0% |
| Placeholder Q | 0% |
| Placeholder R | 0% |
| Placeholder S | 0% |
| Placeholder T | 0% |
| Placeholder U | 0% |
| Placeholder V | 0% |
| Placeholder W | 0% |
| Placeholder X | 0% |
| Placeholder Y | 0% |
| Placeholder Z | 0% |
| Placeholder AA | 0% |
| Placeholder AB | 0% |
| Placeholder AC | 0% |
| Placeholder AD | 0% |
| Placeholder AE | 0% |
| Placeholder AF | 0% |
| Placeholder AG | 0% |
| Placeholder AH | 0% |
| Placeholder AI | 0% |
| Placeholder AJ | 0% |
| Placeholder AK | 0% |
| Placeholder AL | 0% |
| Placeholder AM | 0% |
| Placeholder AN | 0% |
| Placeholder AO | 0% |
| Placeholder AP | 0% |
| Placeholder AQ | 0% |
| Placeholder AR | 0% |
| Placeholder AS | 0% |
| Placeholder AT | 0% |
| Placeholder AU | 0% |
| Placeholder AV | 0% |
| Placeholder AW | 0% |
| Placeholder AX | 0% |
| Placeholder AY | 0% |
| Placeholder AZ | 0% |
| Placeholder BA | 0% |
| Placeholder BB | 0% |
| Placeholder BC | 0% |
| Placeholder BD | 0% |
| Placeholder BE | 0% |
| Placeholder BF | 0% |
| Placeholder BG | 0% |
| Placeholder BH | 0% |
Market context
The event is whether a newly listed company in 2026 ends up with the highest first-day market capitalisation, which is determined by the official closing price on day one multiplied by shares outstanding. In practical terms, the market is less about “biggest raise” than about which listing combines scale, pricing and an immediate aftermarket pop strong enough to outrun the rest of the year’s IPO class.
Recent climate-tech float activity gives some context for the current 92% YES price. Net Zero Insights said its 2026 dataset through 1 July contained nine IPOs, seven of them energy businesses, and roughly 95% of capital raised went to energy names spanning geothermal, nuclear, microgrids, solar, wind and batteries.[1] That backdrop matters because the clean-energy cohort has already produced a benchmark case: Fervo Energy’s May listing was described as the largest clean-energy IPO ever, with stock opening well above issue price and a first-day market capitalisation above $10 billion.[6][8] More broadly, reporting in July said the climate-tech IPO market had received its biggest boost since 2022, which supports the view that the window is open but selective rather than broad.[5][9]
For traders, the main catalysts are filing updates, pricing ranges, share counts and first-day trading performance, because the settlement depends on the closing price on the debut session rather than later performance. In climate-science and adjacent energy names, watch for any large issuer moving from confidential filings to public S-1s, any upsized bookbuild, and whether institutions anchor at a valuation high enough to clear existing private-market leaders. Accessibility is also shaped by venue and compliance: German users may face GlüStV-related restrictions depending on how the product is offered, while a US CFTC nexus can matter if the market is accessible through a regulated derivatives route. “No-KYC up to $1,500” generally means a small amount of activity may be available with lighter identity checks, but larger deposits, withdrawals or trading limits usually trigger full verification, so practical access can tighten quickly even where a venue is nominally open.
Methodology
This overview of Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Tax UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- Is Polymarket regulated by the UKGC?
- No. Polymarket is not licensed by the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC). It is a decentralised prediction market operated under US regulation. UK traders can use it but do not benefit from UKGC dispute resolution or player protection requirements.
- What are the HMRC tax rules on Polymarket profits for UK traders?
- Polymarket profits are treated as cryptocurrency disposal events by HMRC. Each USDC settlement is a taxable event subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT). For 2026/27, the CGT rate is 18% (basic rate) or 24% (higher rate). The annual CGT exemption is £3,000. Report via HMRC Self Assessment if your total crypto gains exceed £3,000 or proceeds exceed £50,000.
- Does Polymarket KYC apply to UK users?
- Yes. Polymarket requires KYC (Know Your Customer) verification for all users, including UK residents. You must provide a government-issued photo ID and a selfie. The process typically takes 5–10 minutes via their ID verification provider.
- What is the legal difference between Polymarket and Betfair Exchange for UK traders?
- Betfair Exchange is UKGC-licensed, meaning UK consumer protections apply and winnings are typically tax-free. Polymarket is not UKGC-licensed — it operates under decentralised blockchain rules. Profits from Polymarket are subject to HMRC CGT as crypto disposals. Choose based on your regulatory preference and tax situation.
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