Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's Pudong International Airport will record a daily high temperature on 10 June 2026, measured in Celsius and settled against Wunderground's historical weather database for that station. The market bins outcomes into temperature ranges, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date. Current crowd pricing shows zero probability assigned to any single range, suggesting either thin liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the actual high.

Historical June temperatures at Pudong Airport cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early-summer heat waves. The 0% probability across all ranges reflects the market's nascent state rather than predictive consensus; comparable weather markets typically see meaningful probability mass distributed across the three to four most likely bands once trading matures. Shanghai's June weather patterns are relatively stable year-on-year, making historical averages a reasonable baseline for assessing which temperature brackets deserve non-trivial odds.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under the German GlüStV framework where applicable to EU traders, whilst US CFTC jurisdiction applies to American participants—both regimes treat binary and range-based prediction markets with varying strictness depending on underlying asset classification. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD per transaction means traders can establish positions below that amount without identity verification on compliant platforms, though cumulative exposure across multiple bets may trigger enhanced due diligence. Wunderground's data feed is publicly accessible and historically reliable, reducing settlement dispute risk common in weather derivatives.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 10? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.