Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

The event is whether the US Senate clears a reconciliation bill before the market deadline. As of late May, the underlying process has already moved well beyond the initial budget blueprint: the Senate passed S. Con. Res. 33 on 23 April, the House then completed adoption on 29 April, and the committees were instructed to produce reconciliation text by 15 May. That makes this a procedural timing market, not a pure policy market, and the 0% implied probability reflects how little room remains for the Senate to finish, pass, and formally send final reconciliation legislation through before 31 May.

The best historical guide is that reconciliation can move quickly once party leadership locks in a narrow scope, but it still depends on alignment between both chambers, committee text, and floor timing. CBO’s scores suggest the package is sizeable, with one set of committee recommendations adding $32.5 billion of direct spending and another $39.2 billion, while CRFB reported the overall FY 2026 reconciliation score at about $72 billion. Recent reporting from the National Low Income Housing Coalition and the AHA both noted that House action was expected only after the Senate blueprint, and that the legislative path was aimed at immigration enforcement funding rather than a broad budget deal, which narrows the number of moving parts but does not remove them.

For traders, the key catalysts are official Senate scheduling, committee filings, and whether leadership brings a text to the floor before month-end; absent a public notice of floor consideration, the odds stay compressed. The market should also be read through a regulatory and access lens: the German GlüStV framework can affect how such event contracts are treated for local users, while the US CFTC’s reach matters because these contracts sit in a heavily scrutinised derivatives-adjacent space. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means some users may be able to access the market with limited identity checks until that threshold, but it does not change the underlying political deadline or the settlement criteria.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.