Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Donald Trump's pattern of public criticism—whether directed at political rivals, media figures, or former associates—forms the empirical basis for assessing whether he will insult a specified individual between now and 31 May 2026. The resolution criteria encompass a broad range of negative statements: derogatory nicknames, accusations of weakness or disloyalty, and professionally disparaging remarks made through traditional media, social platforms, or public appearances. The 10% implied probability reflects scepticism that Trump will target this particular person, though his documented history of public attacks on hundreds of figures across two decades suggests the baseline frequency of such statements remains elevated.

Historical precedent matters here. During his 2016 campaign and presidency, Trump issued insulting remarks about political opponents, judges, journalists, and former staff members with measurable regularity—averaging multiple instances per month during peak periods. Post-2020, his public statements have remained combative, though the audience and distribution channels have shifted. The current low probability may reflect either the specific identity of the target (suggesting lower likelihood of conflict) or market participants' assessment that Trump's rhetoric has moderated relative to earlier periods.

Traders should monitor scheduled political events, campaign announcements, and media coverage involving the named individual. Any direct confrontation, policy disagreement, or competitive positioning between Trump and the target would materially increase the probability of a triggering statement. Regulatory access to this market depends on jurisdiction: UK traders face no KYC requirement up to £1,200 equivalent; EU residents under German GlüStV rules encounter stricter verification thresholds; US CFTC oversight applies to American participants, though enforcement on prediction markets remains unsettled.

Methodology

This page reviews Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.