Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The relevant event is any in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin before 30 June 2026, with the market resolving to “No meeting by June 30” if none occurs. The last confirmed encounter was the August 2025 summit at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, which ended without a deal but showed that a bilateral meeting can be arranged quickly once both sides decide to proceed. Since then, no regular cadence of meetings has been established, so a 0% crowd-implied price reflects the absence of a standing summit plan rather than a strong view that a meeting is impossible.

Recent precedent suggests that venue selection and diplomatic messaging matter more than formal protocol. Politico reported on 16 October 2025 that Trump said he would again meet Putin, with Budapest discussed as a possible location, underscoring how a location can emerge late from bilateral agreement rather than from a long public process. Traders should watch for White House or Kremlin read-outs, travel plans, and any signs that Ukraine-related negotiations or a ceasefire push are advancing, because these are the most plausible triggers for a face-to-face meeting. If no announcement appears on official schedules, the default outcome remains no meeting by the deadline.

For market-access context, the regulatory lens is relevant: German GlüStV rules can affect whether an online prediction market is available to users in Germany, while US CFTC reach can matter if a product is deemed a commodity-based event contract offered into the United States. “No-KYC up to $1,500” generally means smaller-volume participation may be allowed without full identity verification, which can make a niche political market easier to access for casual traders, but higher deposits or withdrawals may still trigger KYC checks depending on the venue.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Where will Trump and Putin meet next? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.