Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Trump administration has already begun releasing declassified UAP material, with the Department of War posting files and saying further tranches will follow on a rolling basis. That matters for settlement because the market only needs any newly declassified, previously unpublished files on extraterrestrial life or unexplained aerial phenomena to be released by 31 December 2026, not a final, comprehensive dump.

For context, the crowd-implied 100% Yes reflects that the trigger has effectively been met in substance: the Department of War said on 8 May it had begun a government-wide review and release effort, and Reuters-linked coverage and major US outlets reported the first tranche was live. The remaining question is usually not whether more material exists, but whether any later release falls within the market’s wording and date window. Comparable UAP disclosure efforts have tended to be incremental, document-led, and security-reviewed rather than one-off events, which makes continued publication more likely than a reversal.

A trader should watch formal announcements from war.gov, ODNI, the White House, and any scheduled “tranche” releases, as the government has said new materials will appear every few weeks. The accessibility angle is straightforward: on prediction markets, “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means a user can participate up to that threshold without full identity verification, though platform access still depends on local rules. In Germany, the GlüStV framework can affect whether a market is legally available or restricted, while the US CFTC can matter if a venue offers event contracts to US persons.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump declassifies new UFO files by...? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.