Makerfield by-election Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A by-election is expected in Makerfield later in 2026 after Josh Simons’ announced resignation, and the market is currently pricing the most likely winner at 66% YES. That level is consistent with a candidate seen as favoured but not dominant: comparable UK by-elections can move sharply once the date, ballot line-up and local campaign strength become clear. Recent market snapshots have shown Andy Burnham leading, with one venue putting him around 57.5% against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon at 39%, while another has Burnham linked to 66% on a separate yes/no contract.

For traders, the main catalysts are the formal resignation timetable, the writ and polling date, any confirmation of candidate selection, and local campaign developments that could alter turnout assumptions. A recent report from Crypto Briefing said Burnham had entered the Makerfield by-election picture, while Lines noted his market lead after Labour’s May local election results; either could be outweighed if Labour’s local vote softens or Reform consolidates a protest vote. As with other event contracts, accessibility is shaped by regulation as much as politics: German users may face GlüStV constraints on participation, US CFTC reach can affect availability or enforceability for some users, and “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means smaller trades can be made without identity verification, but larger activity or withdrawals may trigger checks on this specific market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Makerfield by-election Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.