Market statistics
- Total volume
- $535K
- 24h volume
- $518K
- Liquidity
- $8K
- Open interest
- $23K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
3% | 97% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
3% | 97% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome snapshot
Current YES/NO probability from the live order book.
Market context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information fro
Wikipedia Context
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Lai Ching-teLai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, is a Taiwanese politician and physician who has served as the eighth president of the Republic of China since 2024. A member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), he has been the party's chairman since 2023.
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Lai Chin-linLai Chin-lin is a Taiwanese politician. He was elected to the National Assembly in 1991 and served until 1999, when he took office as a member of the Legislative Yuan. He left the Legislative Yuan in 2004 and became vice minister of the Council of Labor Affairs.
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Lai Ching (constituency)Lai Ching is one of the 37 constituencies in the Kwun Tong District of Hong Kong which was created in 1991.
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Lai Ching Lung
Lai Ching Lung is a Hong Kong medical physician. Lai studied at Diocesan Boys' School, and subsequently in the Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine for Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery in 1970. Asteroid 26743 Laichinglung, discovered by Bill Yeung in 2001, was named after him. The official naming citation was published by the Minor Planet Center on 6
Methodology
This overview of Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. PolyGram has a different geo footprint.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. PolyGram stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), PolyGram would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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