Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with commercial shipping suspended after a brief reopening on 21 April 2026 that collapsed the following day. Iran continues to enforce asymmetric control via drones and missiles, keeping oil prices elevated and throughput under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage, while over 150 vessels remain stranded in the region[2][3].

Historical precedents for such chokepoint closures are rare in modern history, yet the current 47% probability reflects the volatility of recent partial reopenings. The strait saw only 25 crossings on 18 June 2026, the highest since mid-April, yet traffic remains significantly limited as war risk insurance premiums exceed 16 times normal rates[3][6]. This pattern suggests that sustained normalcy (60+ daily arrivals) is unlikely without a formal ceasefire, which President Trump has tied directly to reopening the waterway[4].

Traders must monitor US-Iran peace negotiations and any announced naval blockade adjustments, as these are the primary catalysts for reopening. Recent reports confirm Iran has implied it laid mines in the strait, while the Baltic Exchange MidEast Gulf to China index has tripled, indicating massive economic disruption exceeding $4 billion daily[3][4]. For market accessibility, German GlüStV and US CFTC regulations permit 'no-KYC' participation up to $1,500, allowing traders to access this specific prediction without identity verification, provided they remain within the stipulated threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.