Fed Decision in July?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting will decide whether the upper bound of the federal funds target range is lifted, cut, or left unchanged from its current level. The market settles on the size of the change to the upper bound versus the rate in place before the July 2026 meeting, rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points if the Fed lands on an off-grid level. The crowd-implied **73%** yes probability is therefore best read as a strong expectation of a move being made and, more specifically, as a bet on a direction that may depend on the incoming inflation and labour data before the meeting.

The comparison point is the Fed’s recent holding pattern. The central bank last cut in December 2025 and then left rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its March 2026 meeting, while market commentary through April noted that the Fed was balancing inflation against a softer growth backdrop.[3][4] In that sense, a July move would be more notable than a routine pause, because it would break from the recent sequence of restraint and signal that the committee sees the balance of risks as having shifted. The current probability should also be read against the meeting calendar: the July FOMC runs on 28-29 July 2026.[5]

For accessibility, this is a standard open prediction market rather than a bespoke financial product, so the main practical constraints are platform rules and local law rather than exchange membership. For users in Germany, the GlüStV framework can matter because online betting-style participation may be treated as regulated gambling activity depending on structure and jurisdiction. In the US, the CFTC’s reach is relevant because event contracts can attract commodities-law scrutiny if they fall within its scope. A “no-KYC up to $1,500” policy, where offered, typically means smaller activity can be completed with lighter identity checks, but that does not remove residency, sanctions, tax, or AML obligations for this specific market.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.