Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The event is whether U.S. authorities physically take Raúl Castro into custody by 30 June. That means arrest, detention, capture, or another form of direct physical control by U.S. government personnel; statements, summonses, charges, or travel restrictions on their own do not settle the market. At 27% YES, the crowd is pricing a low-but-non-trivial chance that an unprecedented enforcement step could happen within weeks, rather than merely an indictment or public accusation. For a Germany-facing audience, the German GlüStV angle matters because access to such markets can sit within gambling-law sensitivity, while the practical route for many users is the platform’s no-KYC threshold up to $1,500 in cumulative activity, which can make smaller positions easier to open but does not change the underlying legal or tax treatment. US CFTC reach is also relevant because Polymarket-style event contracts continue to draw scrutiny over whether they fall within federal derivatives oversight rather than state gambling rules.

Comparable cases suggest the market should be read narrowly. Recent reporting has focused on a possible Cuban indictment and pressure campaign rather than any confirmed custody action; one market report on 20 May quoted the acting top prosecutor saying the US expects Castro to appear “by his own will or by another way”, which is language about appearance, not custodial seizure. The key reference point is that legal escalation and physical custody are different events: indictments, sealed warrants, extradition requests, or travel bans can all move probabilities without satisfying the settlement condition. Traders should watch for Justice Department announcements, any unsealing of charges, arrest warrant language, or evidence of Castro being outside Cuba and then detained by US personnel; absent that, the market can remain live even amid intense headlines.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.