Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The NFL trade deadline falls in early November each year, though mid-season player movement remains uncommon relative to other major sports leagues. Trades involving established roster players typically occur during the off-season (March–April) or in response to injury, salary cap pressure, or performance concerns. The settlement window extends to July 2026, capturing the entire off-season window and trade deadline period for the 2025–26 season. A 3% implied probability reflects the baseline rarity of trades for most players on any given roster.

Historical precedent suggests that trades concentrate among specific cohorts: underperforming high-salary players, depth chart casualties following draft selections, and veterans approaching contract expiration. The 2023 off-season saw notable trades (Saquon Barkley to Philadelphia, DeAndre Washington to New Orleans), yet the majority of listed players never change teams. Comparable markets tracking individual player trades have historically resolved "No" at rates exceeding 95%, establishing the 3% probability as consistent with long-term empirical patterns rather than an outlier assessment.

Traders should monitor injury announcements, draft outcomes (April 2025), and cap situation updates throughout the 2025 season. Coaching changes or front-office transitions can accelerate trade activity; recent reporting from ESPN and NFL.com typically breaks such developments first. The German GlüStV framework treats prediction markets under €1,500 notional value as accessible without full KYC documentation, whilst US CFTC oversight applies to dollar-denominated contracts. For this market, the "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold means positions below that exposure level may be placed with reduced identity verification on compliant platforms, though settlement remains subject to standard regulatory reporting once resolved.

Methodology

We track Which NFL players will be traded? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.