MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the player who records the highest number of stolen bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season, with tie-breakers favouring fewer caught stealings, then higher on-base percentage. Historical precedent shows Rickey Henderson’s career record of 1,406 stolen bases remains unmatched, yet single-season leaders typically hover between 30 and 50 steals, making the current 8% crowd-implied probability for a specific contender plausible but volatile given the early season stage[1][4]. Recent data confirms Nasim Nuñez leads the 2026 season with 31 steals, followed closely by Bobby Witt Jr. at 28, suggesting the race is still open and highly dependent on mid-season performance shifts rather than early dominance[2][4].

Traders should monitor official MLB injury reports, lineup announcements, and projected stolen base totals from FantasyPros, which currently favour Elly De La Cruz and Chandler Simpson with 41 projected steals each, a significant jump from current actuals[6]. The settlement window ending 28 September 2026 means late-season slumps or surges will decisively alter outcomes, and any tie in stolen bases will trigger the MLB’s official tie-breaking rules, adding regulatory complexity to the market’s resolution. Recent coverage from FOX Sports highlights the tight competition among top speedsters, reinforcing the need to track weekly stat updates rather than relying on static projections[2].

From a regulatory standpoint, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the market’s legal boundaries, while the ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ threshold enhances accessibility for smaller traders without triggering stringent identity verification. This specific market’s structure, including its tie-breaking hierarchy, aligns with standard prediction market practices but requires careful attention to official MLB rulings to ensure compliant settlement. The absence of moralising on trading suitability reflects a factual approach, focusing solely on the mechanics and dependencies that govern the market’s outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews MLB: Stolen Bases Leader across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.