Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran's internet infrastructure has been offline since 28 February 2026 following military escalation involving the United States and Israel. The blackout affects telecommunications across the country, with international observers documenting near-total disconnection from global networks. This market resolves affirmatively only if credible international reporting establishes broad, unambiguous restoration of general internet connectivity by 30 April 2026.

Historical precedent suggests extended outages in Iran correlate with political or military inflection points rather than technical failure. The 2019 protests saw a seven-day shutdown; the 2022 unrest following Mahsa Amini's death lasted approximately two weeks. Longer blackouts—those exceeding three weeks—have typically required either de-escalation of the triggering conflict or exhaustion of international pressure. The current 0% crowd probability reflects the compressed timeframe: only nine weeks remain until settlement, and no public ceasefire negotiations have commenced as of early March 2026.

Traders should monitor announcements from the UN Security Council, statements from Iranian telecommunications authorities, and cross-border connectivity reports from adjacent nations including Turkey and Iraq. Reuters and AFP coverage of any diplomatic talks between belligerents will signal shifting conditions. Technical indicators—routing table changes, BGP announcements from Iranian ASNs, and reports from Cloudflare or Akamai on traffic restoration—provide early warning. The market's regulatory accessibility under German GlüStV and US CFTC oversight remains standard for this category; the $1,500 no-KYC threshold applies to individual positions, not cumulative exposure across multiple related markets.

Methodology

This page reviews Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.