# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a certain number of views within its first 24 hours. The current crowd estimate places an 18% probability on the outcome settling in the highest bracket, suggesting traders expect a more modest performance than his historical ceiling. This market runs until 30 June 2026, with resolution dependent on YouTube's public view counter at the 24-hour mark post-publication.

MrBeast's day-one view counts have ranged from roughly 50 million to over 100 million across recent uploads, with variance driven by content type, promotional spend, and subscriber engagement patterns. His January 2024 video "I Gave Away $1,000,000" reached approximately 80 million views in 24 hours; earlier high-production releases have exceeded 100 million. The current 18% probability on the upper bracket reflects trader scepticism about replicating peak performance, possibly accounting for audience saturation or algorithmic shifts on YouTube's platform. Comparable creators' day-one trajectories show declining marginal returns as subscriber bases mature, though MrBeast's scale remains exceptional.

Traders should monitor MrBeast's upload schedule and any announcements regarding video subject matter, as production scale and novelty directly influence initial velocity. YouTube's algorithm changes, seasonal viewing patterns, and concurrent platform events (major news cycles, competing releases) can suppress or amplify early traction. The settlement window extends to late June 2026, allowing traders to observe multiple upload cycles before final resolution. From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls within UK and EU jurisdictions' treatment of entertainment-outcome derivatives; German GlüStV frameworks classify prediction markets as gaming instruments subject to state licensing, whilst US CFTC oversight applies only to binary derivatives on regulated assets. No-KYC access up to £1,100 (approximately $1,500 USD equivalent) permits retail participation in this market without identity verification, though operators must maintain transaction records for anti-money-laundering compliance.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.