Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

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Market context

On 9 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that figure, with settlement contingent on the Observatory's official "Daily Extract" publication. The 1% crowd probability suggests traders expect a relatively cool day for early June in Hong Kong, where subtropical conditions typically drive highs into the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius.

Historical data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows June daily maxima cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional extremes. The 1% implied probability likely reflects confidence in moderate conditions rather than exceptional heat. June sits outside Hong Kong's peak summer months (July–August), when temperatures regularly exceed 33°C. Comparable early-June readings from recent years have ranged 27–31°C, anchoring trader expectations toward the middle of the seasonal range. The low probability assigned to higher bands suggests the crowd views outlier heat as unlikely given typical atmospheric patterns for that week.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under different frameworks depending on trader location. UK-based traders face no specific KYC requirements for positions under £1,500 notional value under Gambling Commission guidance, though this does not constitute legal advice. German traders should note GlüStV implications for prediction markets classified as betting products. US traders remain subject to CFTC oversight of derivatives, though enforcement against individual participation in offshore platforms remains inconsistent. Settlement timing depends entirely on Hong Kong Observatory data publication; delays in the official daily extract would postpone resolution beyond the 12:00 UTC window.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.