0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz would signal a complete halt to commercial shipping on a route carrying roughly 21% of global oil supply, a scenario that has occurred briefly during the 2026 US–Iran conflict but was reversed by the June 17 agreement guaranteeing immediate navigation restarts[2][4]. Historical precedents show that even during active hostilities, at least some vessels—often with AIS disabled or rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope—continue passage, making a sustained zero-day count statistically improbable under current diplomatic terms[3][5]. The crowd-implied 0% YES probability reflects this resilience, as the MOU requires Iran to restore pre-war traffic levels by mid-July, with the US lifting its naval blockade by 19 July as a reciprocal condition[2].

Traders should monitor the 19 July US blockade lift deadline and any Iranian deviations from the “best efforts” traffic-restoration clause, alongside real-time IMF PortWatch daily arrival figures for the Strait[2]. A sudden spike in war-risk insurance premiums above 16× normal rates or renewed reports of ships transiting without AIS could indicate emerging closure risks, though recent data shows 25 commercial vessels passed on the highest-volume day since April[2][5]. The market’s settlement hinges entirely on IMF PortWatch publishing a daily “Arrivals of Ships” count of zero; ships not reported by this source are excluded, meaning untracked transits would not invalidate a “Yes” resolution even if physical traffic persists[1][10].

For UK-based participants, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach create a layered regulatory landscape where “no-KYC up to $1,500” enables accessible entry without identity verification, provided the platform operates under a recognised exemption. This threshold aligns with typical retail prediction market limits, allowing traders to engage with Hormuz closure bets without triggering full KYC protocols, though larger positions would require compliance with anti-money laundering rules under both jurisdictions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Tax UK has a different geo footprint.

How are winnings taxed?

Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.

Can I trade anonymously?

Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Tax UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Tax UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.