Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 23 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of a prediction market focused on Seoul’s summer heat. Historical data shows Seoul’s June highs typically range between 22°C and 29°C, with late June often hotter and more humid than early June[3][4]. Current market pricing assigns a 40% probability to 29°C as the frontrunner, with 28°C and 30°C+ as secondary outcomes, while the 0% YES probability for “highest temperature” reflects a misalignment in how the market interprets the resolution clause[1].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily high forecasts, which update between 9 AM and 5 PM, and watch for sudden rain events that could suppress temperatures[6]. Recent weather summaries note that late June 2026 is expected to be notably hotter with increased humidity, making 29°C a plausible ceiling[4]. From a regulatory standpoint, German GlüStV and US CFTC rules may affect platform access, but “no-KYC up to $1,500” allows broader participation for this specific market, provided users comply with local tax obligations[1]. These dependencies shape both the price action and the accessibility of the market for international traders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.