Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. The settlement will draw from historical weather data published by Weather Underground, using the peak daily reading across all times on that date. This is a straightforward meteorological outcome with no discretionary interpretation required.

New York's June temperatures typically cluster between 75°F and 85°F, with historical extremes rarely exceeding 90°F in early June. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the market's mechanics or expect the settlement range to be positioned outside typical June conditions. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms show that crowd confidence in temperature ranges tends to collapse when ranges are set too narrow or when the reference station (here, LaGuardia) has known measurement inconsistencies. June 2026 forecasting remains inherently uncertain; seasonal models from NOAA will not be reliable more than two weeks before the event.

From a regulatory perspective, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, weather derivatives require licensing if structured as contracts for difference, though prediction markets with fixed payouts may fall outside gaming regulation. The US CFTC has limited reach over binary weather outcomes settled on non-US exchanges, though US persons trading on certain platforms may face restrictions. Most prediction market operators permit trading up to $1,500 notional without KYC documentation, meaning casual traders can participate in this market without identity verification, though larger positions typically trigger compliance requirements. Traders should confirm their platform's specific regulatory classification before committing capital.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.