US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran publicly announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market resolves affirmatively if any substantive portion of that agreement text becomes publicly available by 1 July 2026. The 90% crowd probability reflects widespread expectation that at least a summary, full text, or official statement of terms will reach public domain within a fortnight of the signing date—a standard practice for major bilateral accords in the modern era.

Historical precedent suggests high confidence is warranted. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015 saw its full text released within days, as did the Iran nuclear deal's implementing legislation and annexes. Even confidential diplomatic frameworks typically leak or are formally disclosed within weeks of signature when they involve major powers and domestic legislative scrutiny. The US State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry both face domestic political pressure to justify terms publicly, and neither has signalled an intent to keep this agreement classified. The 90% probability discounts only scenarios involving unexpected classification, negotiation collapse before signing, or extraordinary secrecy arrangements—outcomes that would be anomalous given contemporary diplomatic norms.

Traders should monitor official announcements from the US State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry between 19 and 30 June, as these will likely contain the first public disclosure of substantive terms. Congressional notification requirements in the US may also trigger early document circulation. Any statement from either government explicitly committing to confidentiality would shift market dynamics materially downward. The settlement window's 1 July deadline provides a narrow but realistic window for text release, though delays beyond that date would not affect this market's resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews US-Iran deal text released by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.