England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 9% crowd probability assigned to this specific exact-score outcome reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting precise match results; even heavily favoured teams rarely exceed 15–20% implied probability for any single scoreline in comparable fixtures.

Historical precedent from World Cup group matches shows that exact-score markets typically concentrate probability mass across a narrow range. The 1–1 draw, 1–0 victories, and 2–1 results account for roughly 60–70% of all outcomes across major tournament group stages. England's recent tournament record—reaching the Euro 2020 final and the 2018 World Cup semi-final—suggests stronger offensive capability than Croatia, which exited the 2022 World Cup at the group stage. However, Croatia's defensive solidity in knockout phases historically complicates predictions, making scorelines of 1–0 or 1–1 more probable than high-scoring affairs.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under different frameworks depending on trader jurisdiction. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing authority) permits prediction markets on sporting events with proper licensing; US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like instruments, though prediction markets with no leverage typically fall outside direct commodity regulation. For UK-based traders, no KYC requirement applies to positions under £1,500 notional value on this market, though larger positions trigger standard identity verification. Settlement timing aligns with the match conclusion; if postponement occurs, the market remains open until the fixture completes.

Methodology

We track England vs. Croatia - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.