Brazil vs. Haiti - Halftime Result

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Brazil’s meeting with Haiti is a straightforward first-half scoreboard market: the settlement turns on whether Brazil, Haiti or neither led at half-time after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. On the available live and recap coverage, Brazil were already 3-0 up at the break in this fixture, with Matheus Cunha scoring twice and Vinícius Júnior adding a third on the stroke of half-time.[1][2][7] That is consistent with the crowd-implied 100% YES price if the market is asking whether Brazil led at half-time, and it also shows how quickly these markets can compress once a favourite establishes control early.

For context, Brazil’s prior record against Haiti has been heavily one-sided, with Fox Sports noting a 17-1 aggregate across the teams’ three all-time meetings and describing Brazil as a heavy favourite before kick-off.[2] In prediction-market terms, that sort of historical mismatch typically makes the half-time outcome highly sensitive to line-up strength, early finishing and any red-card or injury shock. Under Germany’s GlüStV framework, access to a market like this is mainly about whether the venue is treated as gambling under German law, while U.S. CFTC reach is relevant if the operator or users fall within a derivatives-style regulatory perimeter; both issues matter to settlement and account access, not to the match itself.

The main catalysts for traders are the confirmed kick-off time, team news and whether the event is delayed, because half-time result markets depend on the official first 45 minutes plus stoppage time rather than the full result.[3] On accessibility, “no-KYC up to $1,500” means a user can typically open and use the market without full identity checks until cumulative activity reaches that threshold, which can make small positions easier but does not remove broader jurisdictional restrictions. Any late changes to broadcast, venue or match scheduling would matter, although the recent reporting places the game in Philadelphia at 8:30 PM ET and shows the fixture proceeding as planned.[3][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.