Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Dota 2 Lower Bracket final between 4 Anchors and Ilmeria and the bug, originally set for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June during the North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs. The match has concluded with 4 Anchors and Ilmeria winning 2–0, a result that aligns with the 72.3% crowd preference on Strafe Esports and renders the current 50% YES probability on the prediction market factually obsolete for active trading [2].

Historical precedents in esports prediction markets, such as the Kalshi map-winner contracts for similar qualifiers, show that post-match resolution often triggers immediate settlement rather than sustained volatility, especially when the outcome is decisive [1]. Comparable cases where matches ended 2–0 in lower-bracket finals demonstrate that markets rarely retain 50% pricing once the winner is confirmed, as the 50–50 tie clause applies only to unplayed or delayed matches, not completed results [3].

Traders should monitor official settlement announcements from Robinhood and Kalshi, which typically resolve within one hour of event confirmation, to confirm the final payout status [4]. No further schedule dependencies exist as the match is complete; however, any regulatory updates regarding German GlüStV or US CFTC reach on post-event market closures could influence accessibility for users seeking “no-KYC up to $1,500” access, though this specific market’s accessibility is now limited by its resolved status rather than regulatory barriers [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.