Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, Türkiye and the United States will meet in a FIFA World Cup Group D fixture in Los Angeles, with the market focused on the halftime score after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current crowd-implied probability of a US win at halftime sits at 0%, reflecting Türkiye’s dominance in the first half of the match, where they led 2–1 at the break before winning 3–2 overall[1][5].

Historically, similar 0% probabilities in World Cup halftime markets have appeared when one side controls early possession and scoring, as seen in the last three UEFA European Championships where third-place teams advancing often relied on strong first-half leads[5]. No prior 48-team tournament under this format exists, making current comparisons to the 2016, 2018, and 2024 Euros the most reliable frame for interpreting such extreme odds[5].

Traders should monitor official kick-off confirmations, any stoppage-time announcements, and live score feeds, as the match’s outcome was already settled with Türkiye winning in stoppage time[1][6]. Recent coverage from Yahoo Sports confirms the halftime score and final result, underscoring the reliability of live data as a key dependency for market settlement[1].

Regulatory access remains shaped by German GlüStV rules and US CFTC reach, with “no-KYC up to $1,500” enabling broader participation for retail traders in this specific market, though compliance obligations still apply depending on jurisdiction. These frameworks do not alter the factual outcome but define accessibility and settlement boundaries for participants.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.