Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group D match between Türkiye and the United States, scheduled for 25 June 2026 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, is the real-world event driving this market. The fixture resolves on the final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs, with the settlement window closing at 02:00 UTC on 26 June 2026.

Historical head-to-head data frames the current 5% crowd-implied probability for an exact score outcome. The two nations have met four times since 1991, with the USMNT holding a 2W-1L-1D record and winning the last two encounters, while Flashscore notes a perfectly balanced five-encounter record including two wins each and one draw across seven total goals[2][3]. This low-scoring, competitive history suggests that specific exact scores are inherently rare, aligning with the market’s low probability for any single listed outcome compared to the "Any Other Score" resolution.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements regarding squad rotations, as Pochettino is likely to rotate after two wins from two, and Türkiye’s desperation for a result may influence tactical approaches[2]. Recent ESPN data shows Türkiye lost their last two World Cup Group Stage matches (1-0 vs PAR, 2-0 vs AUS), indicating defensive vulnerabilities that could impact the final score[1]. The match will be broadcast live on FOX and streamed on FOX One, with all Group Stage games available on-demand, ensuring real-time verification of the settlement outcome[4]. From a regulatory perspective, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the legal framework, while 'no-KYC up to $1,500' enhances accessibility for traders in this specific market without compromising compliance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.