Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score

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Market context

Tunisia meet Japan in a group-stage World Cup match, and the **exact score** market will settle on the 90-minute result only, with extra time and penalties excluded. The current 3% crowd-implied price suggests the listed scoreline is viewed as a long shot rather than a base case, which is typical for exact-score contracts where probability is spread across many outcomes.

The head-to-head record points to Japan having the edge: Goal.com says Japan have won three of the four meetings, including a 2-0 friendly win in October 2023, while Tunisia’s only win in that run was 3-0 in June 2022.[1] Reuters reported on 19 June 2026 that Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands in their opener, while Tunisia lost 5-1 to Sweden, a form split that helps explain why the market is not pricing a Tunisia win as the central outcome.[4] In exact-score markets, a small implied probability usually reflects either a low-scoring upset, a narrow favourite win, or a scoreline that sits outside the most common home and away distributions.

For accessibility, German GlüStV rules can matter because prediction-market participation may be restricted where a platform is treated as offering gambling-like products under local law, and US CFTC reach can affect access from the United States if a venue is deemed to fall within commodities-regulatory oversight. If the platform offers “no-KYC up to $1,500”, that generally means small balances or trading volume can be used without full identity verification, but higher cumulative exposure, withdrawals, or jurisdiction checks can still trigger KYC and geofencing, so availability for this match may vary by user location and account activity. Key catalysts are the final team sheets, any late injury or suspension news, and whether the match goes ahead at the scheduled time; if it is postponed, the market stays open until completion, so any schedule change remains relevant to settlement timing.[8][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.