Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score

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Market context

Iraq and Norway will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 16 June 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 6:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty outcomes. Any result not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 4% implied probability for this specific scoreline reflects the combined improbability of both teams producing that precise combination of goals.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group stages cluster heavily toward low-scoring outcomes. Between 2010 and 2022, roughly 65% of group-stage matches ended 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, or 2–1. Iraq has qualified for the 2026 tournament but ranks 124th in FIFA standings; Norway failed to qualify, having finished third in their UEFA qualifying group behind Spain and Sweden. This disparity in competitive level typically widens the distribution of possible scorelines, making any single exact outcome less probable than in matches between evenly ranked sides.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, as absences of key players can materially shift expected goal-scoring patterns. Fixture scheduling changes remain possible under FIFA protocols, though the settlement window extends to 22:00 UTC on 16 June to accommodate delays. From a regulatory standpoint, this market's sub-$1,500 notional value falls below KYC thresholds under German GlüStV provisions and sits outside direct CFTC derivatives oversight in the United States, though traders should verify their own jurisdiction's treatment of prediction market positions.

Methodology

We track Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.