Austria vs. Jordan - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Austria and Jordan will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June, with the match settling on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The 6% crowd probability reflects the specificity required—not merely a win or draw, but a precise scoreline. Exact-score markets demand convergence on a single outcome from dozens of possibilities, making even moderately likely results trade at compressed odds.

Historical precedent from World Cup exact-score markets shows that outcomes clustering around 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 typically capture 40–50% of total probability mass, with all other individual scores distributed across the remainder. Austria's recent competitive record and Jordan's status as a lower-ranked side suggest asymmetry in expected performance, yet exact-score prediction remains inherently volatile. Comparable markets from Euro 2024 demonstrated that crowd-implied probabilities below 8% for specific scorelines often reflected genuine rarity rather than mispricing, particularly when one team held a clear ranking advantage.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through May 2026, as absences of key players shift expected goal distributions. The regulatory environment affects market accessibility: under German GlüStV provisions, this market remains available to EU traders subject to standard verification; US CFTC reach typically excludes prediction markets on sports events, though traders should verify their jurisdiction. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD applies to aggregate positions across certain platforms, meaning exposure below that level may bypass standard identity verification in some jurisdictions, though settlement and withdrawal ultimately require compliance documentation.

Methodology

We track Austria vs. Jordan - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.